**Pipeline Risk Management Chapter 1 highlights**

- 1.1 Risk assessment at-a-glance
- 1.2 Risk: Theory and application
- 1.2.1 The Need for Formality
- 1.2.2 Complexity
- 1.2.3 Intelligent Simplification
- 1.2.4 Classical QRA versus

Physics-based Models - 1.2.5 Statistical Modeling
- 1.3 The Risk Assessment Process
- 1.3.1 Fix the Obvious
- 1.3.2 Using this Manual
- 1.3.3 Quickly getting answers
- 1.4 Pipeline Risk Assessment:

Example 2 - 1.5 Values Shown are

Samples Only

**Implementing a Risk Assessment**

The overall steps for assessment of pipeline risk under a modern risk assessment methodology, and consistent with this guideline, may be summarized as follows:

- Define ‘failure’ and level of conservatism for the risk assessment
- Exposure: Estimate exposures from each threat at all points along the pipeline
- Degradation rate from time-dependent failure mechanisms
- Event rate from time-independent failure mechanisms

- Mitigation: Estimate combined effect of all mitigations at all points along the pipeline
- Identify all mitigation measures
- Rate effectiveness of each
- Use probabilistic summation to show aggregated effectiveness

- Resistance: Estimate the amount of resistance at all points along the pipeline
- Produce best estimate of current pipe strength by using pipe specifications with the “governing” information from:
- Pipe wall implied by last pressure test
- Pipe wall implied by last NDE inspection (including ILI, bell hole exam, etc)
- Pipe wall implied by assumption of leak-free at current NOP
- Possible pipe wall weaknesses (including era-of-manufacture/construction issues and threat interactions)

- Estimate pipe’s resistance to failure from each threat

- Produce best estimate of current pipe strength by using pipe specifications with the “governing” information from:
- Dynamically segment the pipeline based on collected data and estimates
- Probability of Failure (PoF): Calculate PoF from each threat for each segment PoF Triad: combine Exposure, Mitigation, Resistance
- Produce time-to-failure (TTF) and then PoF estimates for time-dependent failure mechanisms
- Produce PoF estimates for time-independent failure mechanisms
- Combine all PoF’s

- Consequence of Failure (CoF): Identify representative consequence scenarios for each segment
- Estimate magnitude of consequence from each scenario, in verifiable measurement units
- Estimate frequency of each scenario
- Produce representative ‘consequence per failure’ value

- Risk: Produce risk values for each segment, perhaps in units of ‘expected loss’ (EL) such as $/mile-year