In this column, we occasionally highlight applications of risk assessment that are perhaps less apparent to some. Since risk permeates almost all industrial endeavors, it is not surprising that risk understanding is or should be an essential part of many types of decision-making. We have already covered risk assessment in incident investigation and as a […]
Topic: Key Points
What’s behind the EE guideline document that DNV and you recently released?
We are advocating a degree of standardisation that serves all stakeholders. This list of essential elements sets forth the minimum ingredients for acceptable pipeline risk assessment. Every RA should have these elements. A specific methodology and detailed processes are intentionally not essential elements, so there is room for creativity and customised solutions. DNV’s recognition of […]
So are there are now pipeline RA approaches that are both better and cheaper than past practice?
Yes. RA that follows the Essential Elements* (EE) guidelines avoids the pitfalls that befall many older methods. Yet, we can still apply all of the data that was collected for the previous approaches. Pitfall avoidance, full transparency, and re-use of data makes the approach more efficient than other practices. Plus, the recommended approaches now generate […]
The PHMSA has recently criticised how Integrity Management Plan (IMP) risk assessments (RAs) for pipelines are being conducted. Do you also see problems?
There is a wide range of practice among pipeline operators right now. Some RA is admittedly in need of improvement, not yet meeting the intent of the IMP regulation. However, I believe that is not due to lack of good intention, but rather incomplete understanding of risk. Risk is a relatively new concept, and is […]
Risk Assessment for conflict resolution
Read the article… (pdf file)
Risk Assessment and Accident Investigation
Incident investigation is both a useful input into a risk assessment and a consumer of risk assessment results. In the former, learnings from the incident are almost always relevant to other portions of other pipelines. In the latter, especially when responsibility (blame) is to be assigned, what should have been known, via risk assessment, prior […]
Intelligent simplifications
The challenge when constructing a risk assessment model is to fully understand the mechanisms at work and then to identify the optimum number of detailed variables for the model’s intended use. This follows the reductionist approach previously discussed—breaking the problem down into pieces for later reassembly into meaningful risk estimates. We must understand and embrace […]
Risk assessment should not add complexity!
In any modeling effort, complexity should exist only because the underlying real-world phenomenon is complex. The risk assessment should not add complexity. Ironically, a scoring type risk assessment, intended to simplify the modeling of real-world phenomena, actually adds complexity. By converting real-world phenomena into ‘points’ via an assignment protocol, an artificial layer of complexity has […]
How to do modern pipeline risk assessment?
Pipeline Risk Management Chapter 1 highlights 1.1 Risk assessment at-a-glance 1.2 Risk: Theory and application 1.2.1 The Need for Formality 1.2.2 Complexity 1.2.3 Intelligent Simplification 1.2.4 Classical QRA versus Physics-based Models 1.2.5 Statistical Modeling 1.3 The Risk Assessment Process 1.3.1 Fix the Obvious 1.3.2 Using this Manual 1.3.3 Quickly getting answers 1.4 Pipeline Risk Assessment: […]
What does this cost?
Data collection remains the higher cost aspect of pipeline risk assessment. If data has been collected properly and is currently being used in almost any older type of risk assessment methodology, it can normally be readily adapted and used to generate updated risk estimates using this more modern and more complete methodology. Costs in the […]