Significant insights into risk are routinely missed when certain risk assessment methodologies are used. This article examines some fundamental differences between QRA techniques in terms of how they catch—and potentially miss—important evidence. PIN_October_2019_Risk Management
Results for Risk Estimates
Problems With Industry Guidance Docs
Since 2011, there have been attempts to update the ASME B31.8s document with regards to threats and risk assessment. The lack of updates to this important guidance document has resulted in continuing confusion for industry practitioners and wastes of resources on non-issues such as ‘threat interaction’ (which is almost entirely caused by the B31.8S language. […]
Avoiding Missteps: Risk vs Rate of Risk
Forming a strategy to mitigate pipeline risks can be complicated by how the length of an asset impacts the numbers. Data and statistics must be carefully considered and interpreted in light of the ‘length’ factor. This article discusses a subtle but critical aspect of understanding risk on a long, linear asset like a pipeline. Risk […]
Pipeline Geohazard Risks
Here’s a advance draft of an article to be included in an upcoming ASME textbook. Geohaz Essay ASME wkm Rev C
Statistical Life Valuation
As monetization of risk becomes more mainstream, values must be assigned to the potential for human injury or fatality. The risk assessor need not generate values himself since such numbers are published in various sources. This includes values that have been used in US government decision-making for years. Here is some example guidance: VSL Guidance 2013 […]
Facilities / tanks / pumps / compressors / appurtenances / etc, General, Modeling, Risk Assessment, Risk Assessment Methodologies
Pipeline Risk Assessment
Risk assessment on any facility is most efficiently done by first dividing the facility into components with unchanging risk characteristics. For a cross-country pipeline, this involves collecting data on all portions of the pipeline and its surroundings and then using this data to ‘dynamically segment’ the pipeline into segments of varying length. Risk algorithms are […]
ILI vs DA—The Risk View
A rather common issue these days is decision making involving comparisons between In Line Inspection (ILI) vs Direct Assessment (DA, and, in particular, External Corrosion DA or ECDA). You may need to research these techniques, if not already familiar to you, since we will assume the reader is fairly familiar with both. Both are acceptable […]
The Test of Time Estimation of Exposure
In the absence of more compelling evidence, an appropriate starting point for the exposure estimation may be the fact that a component or collection of components has not failed after x years in service. This involves the notion of having ‘withstood the test of time’. A component having survived a threat, especially for many years, […]
Getting in the Ballpark
There exists a type of risk analysis that is even more preliminary than a rudimentary assessment. This might be termed more of a risk conceptualization rather than assessment and is based solely on basic deductive reasoning. Illustrated by an example, an analyst may posit that a pipeline’s future risks will mirror the losses shown by […]
Myth Busting—I don’t have enough data (Part 2)
In the first part of this discussion, we hopefully dispelled some myths about low data availability. We discussed how reasoning is used to generate data and how many useful pieces of risk insight emerge from even simple pieces of knowledge. We also contrasted a statistical approach to risk assessment with a physics based approach. The […]